I'd earlier mentioned that Bihar elections will be crucial for every political party. The longevity of Modi wave was always being questioned and Bihar elections put an end to it. What came as a shock to me was the transfer of power within the Mahagathbandhan. Going by the nationwide support for BJP, it’s hard to fathom them winning fewer seats than last elections. One could argue that BJP won more seats last time because of its alliance with JD(U). One could also argue that BJP played the Hindu card way too strongly, which vexed the minority and lower caste. Not declaring the CM candidate could well be another reason for BJP’s defeat. BJP has always had a strong presence in Bihar and the general election(2014) would ratify that. They should retrospect how they managed to plunge so deeply in times when the whole country seems to support Narendra Modi.
Another issue that will surely come up in the parliamentary board meeting is how much should the prime minister be exposed to the public for party work. Modi made 31 public appearances in Bihar in the past few months: more than the number of campaigns conducted by the congress party. Since Modi was directly involved in this state elections, the loss is more for Modi than BJP. Polarization of public perception will also be discussed and mid-level leaders would be asked not to make statements that can be interpreted as anti-minority. The parliamentary board will definitely question itself for not naming a CM candidate and I can see them give up this practice hence forth. The only good that BJP can derive from this election is that their vote share has increased 16% to 24%. This might be a silver lining but it also questions BJP's approach. With 93 lakh votes(approx 30% more than the largest party RJD) BJP will be shooting themselves for ending up with a meager 53 seats. Anyways, having the biggest vote bank will definitely help them for future elections but this election is a big reality check for them.
Another question is how will the Mahagathbandhan function with 3 ex-CMs within its rank?
Lalu is widely perceived to be the king-maker while Nitish is the fan favorite to take the post. Dark horses could be Lalu’s sons Tej Pratap and Tejashvi Yadav. Considering that RJD has won more seats, it is only logical to assume that Nitish kumar might as well face problems taking over the post for the third time. Lalu has mastered the art of caste based politics and it seems that he is not slowing down. Recently, Tejashvi prevaricated his role in the government but keeping in mind that the Yadavs have been away from power for well over a decade, Lalu would like to see his son pumped up to a major cabinet ministry, if not the chief minister's office.
What should also be questioned is Bihar electorate's vacillation. The vote share of single parties shows a different trend while the final seat share tells a different story. Urban Bihar is against caste based politics and has voted in large numbers for pro-development BJP while the rural areas are still getting fooled by minority appeasements. Lalu was expected to win a major chunk of Muslim votes and I'm sure he did and Nitish won over the OBC. It is after a very long time that the voters have shown such a polemic response. One thing is definitely clear, Narendra Modi has to look for a different approach to expedite his reforms as a Rajya Sabha majority looks slim.
No comments:
Post a Comment